Apple’s 2027 iPhone outlook dims: higher prices and slower upgrades

KeyBanc has cut Apple to Underweight from Sector Weight, saying expectations for iPhone growth in 2027 have gotten too rosy.

The firm argues that the current consensus, around 8% iPhone growth in 2027, is too aggressive. Its own forecast now puts 2027 iPhone revenue growth at 4.9%, versus the market’s 8.3%.

KeyBanc sees three pressures building at once: higher iPhone prices, weaker carrier subsidies in the US, and slower replacement cycles as people hold on to their phones longer.

For gamers and power users, that may mean sticking with an older iPhone for another year or two. KeyBanc says those longer upgrade cycles are showing up in Latin America as well, not only in the US.

The firm also warns that rising component costs, especially memory-chip inflation, could make things worse. Reports have already linked the iPhone 18 Pro lineup to possible price increases of about $200, which leaves Apple trying to protect margins without hurting demand.

There’s another piece to this if you watch Apple stock. KeyBanc says Apple still hit a record 20% share of global smartphone shipments in Q2 2026, up from 17% a year earlier, even as total shipments fell to their lowest second-quarter level in 13 years. Even so, the firm doesn’t think those share gains will produce the kind of 2027 iPhone cycle investors are counting on. KeyBanc also sees risk across Apple’s other businesses, including Mac, iPad, Wearables, and Services.

Apple trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker AAPL.