2023 has been a year of battles and rights recovery in the film industry. This has meant strikes and stoppages, as there is no other way to move forward in this regard. And while everything has turned out as the workers wanted, 2024 will be a very tough year for the production companies.
After a partial recovery following the pandemic, it is expected that the global box office will decline again in 2024, as the writer and actor strikes in 2023 will undoubtedly have a negative impact on next year’s revenues.
In a preliminary draft of its annual forecasts, box office analysis company Gower Street Analytics states that global cinema revenue should reach $33.4 billion in 2023. But next year it could be 5% lower, at $31.5 billion.
Some very bad data for the industry
The global projection for 2024 would place the total for the year 20% below the average of the last three pre-pandemic years, 2017-2019.
The forecasts are derived from a combination of Gower Street’s forecast database, currently known release calendars, and additional analyst assessments.
“Taking into account that we lost 50% of production time in 2023, the projected 5% year-on-year decline in 2023 is not indicative of a decreasing interest in cinema, but simply a direct consequence of limited product availability,” said Dimitrios Mitsinikos, CEO of Gower Street.
In fact, it is highlighted that this July 2023 marked a record-breaking month at the global box office, so there is interest in cinema and viewers worldwide are eager to return to movie theaters.
The company claims that their knowledge of the titles that are likely to be released in 2025 points to “a very good year at the global box office and hopefully a positive trendsetter for the second half of this decade.”
A necessary, but painful strike
The most affected territory by the impact of strikes in production is the North American market (Hollywood).
Gower Street predicts that North American box office in 2024 will end 11% below that of 2023, with approximately $8 billion. That would be 30% below the 2017-2019 average and only a modest 7% above 2022.
China, with its huge installed base of cinemas and its decreasing dependence on Hollywood content, is the only market expected to grow next year. Gower Street estimates a 5% growth in 2024, reaching $7.9 billion.
