Today we are going to bring one of those news that experts and fans of numbers and sales like a lot. And we are talking about Apple, a company with millions of followers, and we are talking about the expected iPhone 15.
We expect changes for the better in the iPhone 15s, including a Dynamic Island and USB-C port on all models, major camera improvements, and design and construction tweaks, including the use of titanium on the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max.
However, and despite all that, these might not be among Apple’s best performing phones… at least in terms of sales.
According to Ming-Chi Kuo (an analyst with a great track record of reporting on Apple), “demand for the iPhone 15 is lower than for the iPhone 14.”
Kuo doesn’t explain why, but he does say that shipment forecasts for Apple’s hardware products in the second half of this year are “weaker” than in the second half of last year, so this is not a problem unique to the iPhone, but could also affect Macs, iPads and Apple’s other devices.
Still, the iPhone remains Apple’s key product, and this year doesn’t look like it’s going to be a slow year for updates, so at first glance, this prediction might surprise you.
Great upgrades, but not as great as last year
So why might there be lower demand for the iPhone 15? We can think of several possible reasons. For one, while the rumored upgrades are interesting, they are arguably not as big as iPhone 14 was.
With the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max, we saw the introduction of the Dynamic Island, which is the biggest design change since iPhone X. We also saw major updates to their main cameras.
These updates are now expected to come to non-Pro models with the iPhone 15, which is still a big deal, but no longer completely new features.
As for things that are actually new for the iPhone, we have the expected USB-C port. But while this is an improvement over the Lightning ports currently used by Apple phones, it’s also divisive, as some people are oddly attached to Lightning (Apple included), and many bemoan the fact that their Lightning chargers and accessories now won’t work without an adapter.
This could hurt the uptake of the new phones. But even without that problem, this year’s rumored updates don’t seem as important as last year’s.
A declining market
Then, of course, there’s the state of the smartphone market and the global economy in general: neither is at its best and, with many remote jobs in the wake of the pandemic, there may be less demand for phones than before as many of us are at home more.
Canalys data from July 2023 shows that while the decline in the smartphone market has slowed, it is currently still declining, with shipments 10% lower in Q2 2023 than in Q2 2022. That decline has affected Apple.
Upgrade cycle could work in Apple’s favor
That said, there are also some positive signs for the iPhone 15, as Dan Ives recently predicted that, in fact, the iPhone 15 series could be a big hit.
This is because there are reportedly around 250 million iPhones that have not been upgraded in over four years, many of which they claim are likely to be upgraded this year.
That theory is supported by 2019 data from Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, which suggests that people now typically upgrade iPhones every four years.
So it’s unclear which of these analysts will be right. If we had to guess, we’d say that the iPhone 15 line will likely be less successful than the iPhone 14 series, due to marginally less interesting upgrades, the switch to USB-C, and the general state of the smartphone market.
But if there really are 250 million people eager to upgrade, then it could easily be the other way around.
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