Nintendo Switch 2 has been a launch success, but analysts believe it could fail due to a key aspect

The Switch 2, the highly anticipated console from Nintendo, was launched in early June and achieved an impressive milestone by selling 1.6 million units in its first month, thus becoming the fastest-selling console in U.S. history. This outstanding start has generated both excitement and skepticism among industry analysts.

Mat Piscatella, Circana analyst, warns that initial sales are not always a reliable indicator of long-term success. There have been cases where systems with extraordinary initial sales later disappointed, while others started with slow performance but achieved great success later on. “It’s difficult to draw solid conclusions about long-term performance based solely on these initial data,” Piscatella commented.

Perhaps the audience that is not within Nintendo will not spend that money

In his projections, Piscatella estimates that the Switch 2 could sell around 4.3 million units in its first year. However, he invites us to consider that the margin of error in these projections is greater due to the current economic instability in the U.S. On the other hand, the launch of the Switch 2 has contributed to hardware spending reaching a new record of $978 million in June 2025, significantly surpassing the figure of $608 million recorded 17 years ago.

The Switch 2 has a price of $450, approximately $60 more than the original Switch, an increase that has not been an obstacle for enthusiasts who purchased the console since its launch. However, Piscatella warns that this price could affect sales among mass-market buyers during the upcoming holiday season. “Enthusiasts flocked to the store from day one. Now we need to see if they can attract mass-market gift buyers,” he concluded.

Nintendo’s expectations for the Switch 2 are high, and the company is expected to announce more sales figures in its upcoming earnings report on August 1. In the meantime, the industry will be watching how the console performs in the coming months.

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