This week, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew appeared before the U.S. Congress to testify about TikTok and the security of U.S. citizens’ data. A hearing where the friction between the CEO and many detractors of the social network, who advocate its forced sale to a U.S. company or its ban, if this is not finally carried out, could be seen.
But, in such a scenario, who would come out on top? Bernstein, a financial research and advisory firm, said in a brief sent to clients that Mark Zuckerberg’s company Meta would be the clear winner, followed by Snap, parent company of Snapchat, and YouTube. As picked up by TechCrunch, Bernstein claims in his note to clients that Meta would be able to attract a large number of users if TikTok ultimately ends up being banned in the United States.
“Users go where they already are. Instagram’s Reels, where users are already seeing the most short-form video outside of TikTok, and Snap’s Spotlight, which offers the largest demographic overlap with TikTok, are likely to be the big winners,” the company said in its note.
The data thrown out by Bernstein suggests that Meta, Google (owner of YouTube) and Snap would all see a spike in revenue in the face of the huge hole TikTok would leave if it were vetoed in the U.S., and could even boost the stock price of these large companies.
“Advertising dollars go where advertisers are most comfortable with the highest return on investment. Again, Meta seems the most likely winner with best-in-class ad products, including SFV, while YouTube offers the greatest overlap in brand campaign targeting. YouTube was also likely the largest share donor to TikTok ads, and could see ad dollars coming home,” the release stated.
Will this scenario come true? Although highly likely, TikTok knows that it has a lot to lose from a total ban of the app in the United States, so it would not be surprising if ByteDance, its parent company, eventually sells it to a US company in order to avoid further losses.
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