Tesla is facing a significant drop in vehicle deliveries in 2025

Tesla deliveries are facing a projected sharp decline, reaching levels not seen in over two years.

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According to the latest projections, the company is expected to deliver 359,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, which would represent a 7% decrease compared to the previous year and a surprising 27% less compared to the previous quarter.

This decline marks a return to figures not seen since the third quarter of 2022.

Tesla falls in the midst of its biggest reputational crisis in history

The situation worsens due to the drop in Tesla sales in Europe, where a decline of up to 50% is reported. In China, the most important market for the brand, sales have also slightly decreased year-on-year, adding pressure to the company’s global results.

In this context, prediction markets, such as Kalshi, are setting expectations for quarterly deliveries, with volumes reaching up to half a million, reflecting public interest in the company’s performance.

The change in the model of the best-selling vehicle, the Model Y, is considered an important factor in this drop in deliveries. This model change is expected to serve as justification for the negative results ahead, although the situation is more complex and cannot be explained solely by Elon Musk’s management decisions.

Shareholders may blame Musk for the poor performance, but the reality is that various factors, such as production hurdles and changes in demand, have also significantly influenced it.

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As Tesla navigates this challenging quarter, the financial results are expected to be even more discouraging, reflecting a critical period for the company and its CEO. The data suggests that the “Elon effect” could play a prominent role in how these difficulties are perceived in the market.