Tesla Faces Disappointing Q1 Delivery Forecast for 2025

Tesla’s first-quarter delivery expectations for 2025 reveal a troubling forecast, as the company is expected to deliver only 377,592 electric vehicles.

This figure marks a significant drop and would be Tesla’s worst showing in over two years.

The consensus was compiled from 27 analysts, with initial predictions set at over 450,000 deliveries before being revised downwards by approximately 75,000 units amid disappointing figures from Europe.

Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries for 2025 Show Disappointing Forecast

One of the primary reasons for this decline is the ongoing design changeover for the Model Y. The transition to the new design has forced Tesla to shift production at four of its factories, causing a bottleneck in deliveries. However, the Model Y isn’t the only vehicle affecting Tesla’s numbers.

Sales for the Model 3 have plummeted by nearly 30%, and the anticipated rollout of the Cybertruck has not lived up to expectations, with thousands of units sitting in inventory.

In addition to these challenges, Tesla has been forced to reintroduce 0% financing offers for the Model 3 in the U.S. market to boost sales, further highlighting its struggles. While the company has maintained delivery levels in China, this has come at the cost of reduced gross margins, as heightened competition impacts its pricing power.

Looking ahead, Tesla’s total delivery projection for 2025 has now settled at 1,850,000 vehicles, although further reductions are anticipated as more quarter results are processed.

Analysts speculate that Tesla’s brand image may also be suffering, with this impact likely becoming clearer in the upcoming Q2 and Q3 periods. It remains to be seen how much the design changes and sales declines will affect consumer perception long-term.