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Academy Awards odds to help you win your 2019 Oscars pool

Planning on having an Oscars Party? If so, it’s worth having a competition to see which of you can guess the most Oscar winners. According to online betting site Bovada, these are the current odds for the major categories. The lower the number, the more likely it is that nominee will win. We’ve also assembled a master list of where to watch movies online, so be sure to hold your movie marathon before the Academy Awards on February 24!

Oscars 2019 Predictions

Best Picture

Roma

(Click each title to watch the movies online.)

“Roma” is the current frontrunner, but will the Academy give a statue to a Netflix movie? “Green Book” is facing controversy over its blurred retelling of history. “Bohemian Rhapsody” is facing headwinds because of a scandal involving its director, Bryan Singer. While “Roma” may be a lock for Best Foreign Film, we think “A Star Is Born” could slip through for the win. Although its director (Bradley Cooper) wasn’t nominated, this year could mirror the 2013 Oscars when “Argo” won Best Picture, even though its director (Ben Affleck) wasn’t nominated.

Also, remember that actors make up the biggest share of the voters and “A Star Is Born” features nominees in three of the four acting categories. Only “Vice” can match that and it has two actors who already have Oscars, so the Academy will likely overlook them.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón

Cuarón is the frontrunner here. The possible drag against him is his previous Oscar in 2013 for “Gravity.” The Academy gets stingy with second statuettes. If you’re looking for an upset, put your money on Spike Lee. The Academy sometimes hands out Oscars as “lifetime achievement awards,” and we’d love to hear his acceptance speech.

Best Actress

Glenn Close

  • Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) +4000
  • Glenn Close (The Wife) -550
  • Olivia Colman (The Favourite) +350
  • Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) +1000
  • Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) +5000

Speaking of “lifetime achievement awards,” this is Glenn Close’s seventh nomination and she’s the odds-on favorite. Lady Gaga could provide the upset, but voters are likely to want her to “pay her dues.” Gaga will pick up an Oscar elsewhere in the telecast (stay tuned).

Best Actor

bohemian rhapsody

Rami Malek’s transformation into Freddie Mercury will likely land him the prize. If you’re looking for an upset, everyone loves Viggo Mortensen. A win for him could give “Green Book” a little love without necessarily honoring the film as a whole.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali

As we said, the Academy can be stingy with a second statue, so Ali’s 2017 win for “Moonlight” could rain on his parade here. Richard E. Grant plays the kind of broken down character the Academy loves. But if you’re looking for an upset, Sam Elliott could snag a win as tribute for his long career. This category is often set up to reward the kindly old guy that everyone in Hollywood loves, but the actual Oscar rarely goes that way. Elliott could be the exception.

Best Supporting Actress

Regina King

Regina King leads the way here, and we don’t see much of a threat to her. Amy Adams is beloved and Oscarless, but “Vice” didn’t give her much to do. Be aware that this category frequently throws the biggest curveball of the night.

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara) -200
  • First Reformed (Paul Schrader) +1400
  • Green Book (Nick Vallelonga & Brian Hayes Currie & Peter Farrelly) +200
  • Roma (Alfonso Cuarón) +750
  • Vice (Adam McKay) +4000

“Green Book” probably had this on lockdown until its scandal flared up. “Vice” had its moments, but it’s not particularly noteworthy. “Roma” felt like it had 12 lines of dialogue. So maybe “The Favourite” really is the favorite.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Planning on having an Oscars Party? If so, it's worth having a competition to see which of you can guess the most Oscar winners. According to online betting site Bovada, these are the current odds for the major categories. The lower the number, the more likely it is that nominee will win. Oscars 2019 Predictions Best Picture Black Panther +3000 BlacKkKlansman +3000 Bohemian Rhapsody +1800 The Favourite +1800 Roma -330 Green Book +360 A Star Is Born +3000 Vice +5000 "Roma" is the current frontrunner, but will the Academy give a statue to a Netflix movie? "Green Book" is facing controversy over its blurred retelling of history. "Bohemian Rhapsody" is facing headwinds because of a scandal involving its director, Bryan Singer. While "Roma" may be a lock for Best Foreign Film, we think "A Star Is Born" could slip through for the win. Although its director (Bradley Cooper) wasn't nominated, this year could mirror the 2013 Oscars when "Argo" won Best Picture, even though its director (Ben Affleck) wasn't nominated. Also, remember that actors make up the biggest share of the voters and "A Star Is Born" features nominees in three of the four acting categories. Only "Vice" can match that and it has two actors who already have Oscars, so the Academy will likely overlook them. Best Director Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) -2000 Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) +3300 Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) +550 Adam McKay (Vice) +3300 Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) +2500 Cuarón is the frontrunner here. The possible drag against him is his previous Oscar in 2013 for "Gravity." The Academy gets stingy with second statuettes. If you're looking for an upset, put your money on Spike Lee. The Academy sometimes hands out Oscars as "lifetime achievement awards," and we'd love to hear his acceptance speech. Best Actress Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) +4000 Glenn Close (The Wife) -550 Olivia Colman (The Favourite) +350 Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) +1000 Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) +5000 Speaking of "lifetime achievement awards," this is Glenn Close's seventh nomination and she's the odds-on favorite. Lady Gaga could provide the upset, but voters are likely to want her to "pay her dues." Gaga will pick up an Oscar elsewhere in the telecast (stay tuned). Best Actor Christian Bale (Vice) +250 Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) +1400 Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) +5000 Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) -400 Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) +3300 Rami Malek's transformation into Freddie Mercury will likely land him the prize. If you're looking for an upset, everyone loves Viggo Mortensen. A win for him could give "Green Book" a little love without necessarily honoring the film as a whole. Best Supporting Actor Mahershala Ali (Green Book) -1400 Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) +3300 Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) +900 Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) +700 Sam Rockwell (Vice) +5000 As we said, the Academy can be stingy with a second statue, so Ali's 2017 win for "Moonlight" could rain on his parade here. Richard E. Grant plays the kind of broken down character the Academy loves. But if you're looking for an upset, Sam Elliott could snag a win as tribute for his long career. This category is often set up to reward the kindly old guy that everyone in Hollywood loves, but the actual Oscar rarely goes that way. Elliott could be the exception. Best Supporting Actress Amy Adams (Vice) +300 Marina de Tavira (Roma) +1500 Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) -280 Emma Stone (The Favourite) +2000 Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) +800 Regina King leads the way here, and we don't see much of a threat to her. Amy Adams is beloved and Oscarless, but "Vice" didn't give her much to do. Be aware that this category frequently throws the biggest curveball of the night. Best Original Screenplay The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara) -200 First Reformed (Paul Schrader) +1400 Green Book (Nick Vallelonga & Brian Hayes Currie & Peter Farrelly) +200 Roma (Alfonso Cuarón) +750 Vice (Adam McKay) +4000 "Green Book" probably had this on lockdown until its scandal flared up. "Vice" had its moments, but it's not particularly noteworthy. "Roma" felt like it had 12 lines of dialogue. So maybe "The Favourite" really is the favorite. Best Adapted Screenplay A Star Is Born (Eric Roth, Will Fetters & Bradley Cooper) +2000 The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen & Ethan Coen) +5000 BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) -250 If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) +600 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty) +275 This category feels fairly wide open. Perhaps it's Spike Lee's time to shine - he and his co-writers are the favorites for "BlacKkKlansman." Best Makeup and Hairstyling Border (Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer) +1600 Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks) +700 Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney) -1200 "Vice" is deservedly the frontrunner here. Christian Bale deserves a ton of credit for the weight gain, but there were moments in that film when we could swear we were looking at news footage from 15 years ago. Best Costume Design The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres) +3300 Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter) +160 The Favourite (Sandy Powell) -240 Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell) +2500 Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne) +2000 This category usually goes to the movie with ye olde wardrobe, so "The Favourite" makes sense here. All of these movies had fantastic costumes, though. Perhaps an opening for "Black Panther" to snag a statue. Best Cinematography The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)+1500 Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel) +4000 Roma (Alfonso Cuarón) -2000 A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique) +1500 Cold War (Lukasz Zal) +900 The first shot of "Roma" sealed this for Alfonso Cuarón. Write it in stone. Best Original Song "All the Stars" (Black Panther) +750 "I'll Fight" (RBG) +2000 "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns) +2000 "Shallow" (A Star Is Born) -3000 "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) +4000 Another lock. "Shallow" cannot be topped. Best Original Score Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson) +250 BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard) +1600 If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell) -200 Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat) +2500 Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman) +550 "If Beale Street Could Talk" is the favorite here, but there's a chance voters will go with "Black Panther" and its cacophony of drums. Best Documentary Feature Free Solo (Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes and Shannon Dill) -200 Hale County This Morning, This Evening (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes and Su Kim) +4000 Minding the Gap (Bing Liu and Diane Quon) +1500 Of Fathers and Sons (Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert) +5000 RBG (Betsy West and Julie Cohen) +130 "Free Solo" will likely win by virtue of the difficulty of filming a man climbing a mountain by himself. "RBG" could sneak in, just as a way for people to let Ruth Bader Ginsburg know they love her. Best Animated Feature Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle) +900 Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson) +900 Mirai (Mamoru Hosoda and Yuichiro Saito) +4000 Ralph Breaks the Internet (Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer) +2500 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller) -1500 We've rarely heard praise heaped on an animated film the way it's been doled out to "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse." This seems like the likely winner and the odds agree. Best Foreign-Language Film Capernaum (Lebanon) +2500 Cold War (Poland) +700 Never Look Away (Germany) +3300 Roma (Mexico) -2000 Shoplifters (Japan) +1700 "Roma" will wipe out the competition here and it's not close. Best Sound Mixing Black Panther +3300 Bohemian Rhapsody -120 First Man +800 Roma +5000 A Star Is Born (Even) Two musicals lead the pack here, but if you want to take a flyer, consider "First Man" since the space shuttle stuff is Oscar bait and Damien Chazelle's movies are often an auditory joyride. Check out the unexpected sounds they incorporated to the shuttle launch. Best Sound Editing Black Panther (Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker) +1000 Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone) +600 First Man (Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan) -250 A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl) +350 Roma (Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay) +2500 As mentioned above, "First Man" and its space shuttle sequences probably give it the edge here. "A Quiet Place" could play spoiler, since sound is so integral to the plot. Best Production Design Black Panther (Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart) +200 The Favourite (Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton) -230 First Man (Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas)+2500 Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre and Gordon Sim) +2500 Roma (Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez) +900 Will voters choose the old-timey look of "The Favourite" or the futuristic visions of "Black Panther"? It's possible that Wakanda feels too computer-generated to earn the Oscar here. Best Visual Effects Avengers: Infinity War -650 Christopher Robin +3500 First Man +400 Ready Player One +1000 Solo: A Star Wars Story +5000 "Infinity War" had a ton of visual effects and a believable animated villain in Thanos. The question is whether voters will honor a comic book movie over something realistic like "First Man," which somehow feels more "Oscar-worthy." Best Film Editing BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown) +1000 Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman) +275 The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis) +350 Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito) +3300 Vice (Hank Corwin) -150 "Vice" may deserve it for the audacity of its mid-movie credits sequence alone. The film covers a sprawling time frame, and the editing helps propel it along. That said, "Bohemian Rhapsody" could slip through since the big concert scenes provide the music video jolt that many voters may respond to. And in case you're wondering, Bovada puts "Gotti" as the favorite to win Worst Picture at the annual Razzie Awards. "Holmes and Watson" is a close second.

  • A Star Is Born (Eric Roth, Will Fetters & Bradley Cooper) +2000
  • The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen & Ethan Coen) +5000
  • BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) -250
  • If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) +600
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty) +275

This category feels fairly wide open. Perhaps it’s Spike Lee’s time to shine – he and his co-writers are the favorites for “BlacKkKlansman.”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Vice

  • Border +1600
  • Mary Queen of Scots +700
  • Vice -1200

“Vice” is deservedly the frontrunner here. Christian Bale deserves a ton of credit for the weight gain, but there were moments in that film when we could swear we were looking at news footage from 15 years ago.

Best Costume Design

The Favourite

This category usually goes to the movie with ye olde wardrobe, so “The Favourite” makes sense here. All of these movies had fantastic costumes, though. Perhaps an opening for “Black Panther” to snag a statue.

Best Cinematography

Roma
The first shot from “Roma” was pretty mind-blowing.
  • The Favourite (Robbie Ryan) +1500
  • Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel) +4000
  • Roma (Alfonso Cuarón) -2000
  • A Star Is Born (Matty Libatique) +1500
  • Cold War (Lukasz Zal) +900

The first shot of “Roma” sealed this for Alfonso Cuarón. Write it in stone.

Best Original Song

  • “All the Stars” (Black Panther) +750
  • “I’ll Fight” (RBG) +2000
  • “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns) +2000
  • “Shallow” (A Star Is Born) -3000
  • “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs) +4000

Another lock. “Shallow” cannot be topped.

Best Original Score

“If Beale Street Could Talk” is the favorite here, but there’s a chance voters will go with “Black Panther” and its cacophony of drums.

Best Documentary Feature

  • Free Solo -200
  • Hale County This Morning, This Evening +4000
  • Minding the Gap +1500
  • Of Fathers and Sons +5000
  • RBG +130

“Free Solo” will likely win by virtue of the difficulty of filming a man climbing El Capitan without ropes, harnesses, or other safety equipment. “RBG” could sneak in, just as a way for people to let Ruth Bader Ginsburg know they love her.

Best Animated Feature

Into the Spider-Verse

  • Incredibles 2 +900
  • Isle of Dogs +900
  • Mirai +4000
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet +2500
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse -1500

We’ve rarely heard praise heaped on an animated film the way it’s been doled out to “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.” This seems like the likely winner and the odds agree.

Best Foreign-Language Film

  • Capernaum (Lebanon) +2500
  • Cold War (Poland) +700
  • Never Look Away (Germany) +3300
  • Roma (Mexico) -2000
  • Shoplifters (Japan) +1700

“Roma” will wipe out the competition here and it’s not close.

Best Sound Mixing

Two musicals lead the pack here, but if you want to take a flyer, consider “First Man” since the space shuttle stuff is Oscar bait and Damien Chazelle’s movies are often an auditory joyride. Check out the unexpected sounds they incorporated to the shuttle launch.

Best Sound Editing

As mentioned above, “First Man” and its space shuttle sequences probably give it the edge here. “A Quiet Place” could play spoiler, since sound is so integral to the plot.

Best Production Design

Black Panther

Will voters choose the old-timey look of “The Favourite” or the futuristic visions of “Black Panther”? It’s possible that Wakanda feels too computer-generated to earn the Oscar here.

Best Visual Effects

“Infinity War” had a ton of visual effects and a believable animated villain in Thanos. The question is whether voters will honor a comic book movie over something realistic like “First Man,” which somehow feels more “Oscar-worthy.”

Best Film Editing

“Vice” may deserve it for the audacity of its mid-movie credits sequence alone. The film covers a sprawling time frame, and the editing helps propel it along. That said, “Bohemian Rhapsody” could slip through since the big concert scenes provide the music video jolt that many voters may respond to.

And in case you’re wondering, Bovada puts “Gotti” as the favorite to win Worst Picture at the annual Razzie Awards. “Holmes and Watson” is a close second.

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