Wall Street Doubts Tesla’s Q1 2025 Delivery Projections as Estimates Drop

Wall Street’s initial optimism regarding Tesla’s Q1 2025 delivery estimates appears to be waning as analysts gradually adjust their projections.

Originally set at 464,000 deliveries, the consensus has been revised down to 418,000, reflecting an 8% increase over Q1 2024, but still indicating a faltering trajectory as Tesla struggles to keep pace with last year’s phenomenal growth.

In Q1 2024, Tesla delivered approximately 387,000 vehicles, yet current tracking suggests that deliveries are running about 31,000 units short across its key markets: Europe, China, and the United States.

Tesla in Europe deliveries have plummeted by around 43%

In Europe, deliveries have plummeted by around 43%, representing a deficit of about 20,000 units compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, in China, figures are lagging by approximately 7,000 units, and the U.S. market has experienced an 11% drop, equating to roughly 4,000 fewer units sold compared to January 2023.

Notably, this mismatch between expectations and actual performance has prompted downgrades from firms such as Guggenheim and JP Morgan, reducing their estimates to 358,000 and 355,000 deliveries, respectively. However, Morgan Stanley remains an outlier, holding steady with a more optimistic forecast of 414,000 units.

The forecasting market Kalshi paints an even gloomier picture, currently estimating deliveries at just 324,000 vehicles. This pessimism could potentially align with reality if Tesla fails to amplify deliveries of the newly released Model Y in China over the coming weeks.

With time running out to reconcile these disparities, the coming data from vehicle registrations will be critical in determining Tesla’s ability to meet or fall short of expectations this quarter.

As the deadline approaches, analysts remain divided in their predictions, but many anticipate that the final tally will reside below 380,000 units, with a floor of around 350,000 units being more likely if current trends persist.